Latest Success Metrics For Actual 8011 Exam (Updated 330 Questions)

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PRMIA 8011 (Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate) certification exam is a globally recognized credential that validates the knowledge and skills of professionals in the fields of credit and counterparty risk management. Credit and Counterparty Manager (CCRM) Certificate Exam certification exam is designed for individuals who are responsible for managing credit risk, counterparty risk, and other types of financial risks in banks, financial institutions, and other organizations.

 

NEW QUESTION # 42
The CDS rate on a defaultable bond is approximated by which of the following expressions:

• A. Hazard rate / (1 - Recovery rate)
• B. Hazard rate x Recovery rate
• C. Credit spread x Loss given default
• D. Loss given default x Default hazard rate

Answer: D

Explanation:
The CDS rate is approximated by the [Loss given default x Default hazard rate]. Thus Choice 'b' is the correct answer.
Note that this is also equal to the credit spread on the reference bond over the risk free rate. Therefore credit spreads and CDS rates are generally the same. Also, 'loss given default' is nothing but (1 - Recovery rate).
This can be substituted in the formula for the credit spread to get an alternative expression that directly refers to the recovery rate. Therefore all other choices are incorrect.

NEW QUESTION # 43
What is the annualized steady state volatility under a GARCH model where alpha is 0.1, beta is 0.8 and omega is 0.00025?

• A. 0.08
• B. 0.0025
• C. 0.05
• D. 0.1

Answer: C

Explanation:
Steady state variance under the GARCH model is given by the formula #/(1 - # - #). In this case, steady state variance therefore works out to 0.00025/(1 - 0.1 - 0.8) = 0.0025. Since this is the variance, volatility is the square root of 0.0025, which works out to 0.05.
Thus, 5% (=0.05) is the correct answer, and the others are incorrect.
Also recall the following in respect of GARCH:
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NEW QUESTION # 44
For an investor with a long position in market index futures, which of the following is a primary risk:

• A. Risk that expected dividends will differ from realized dividend yields
• B. Movement in interest rates underlying the futures prices
• C. Basis risk between futures and spot prices
• D. Increase or decrease in the level of the underlying index

Answer: D

Explanation:
This question emphasizes the difference between primary and secondary risks. Primary risks are the risks consciously undertaken, ie the risks whose premium the investor is trying to earn. Secondary risks are risks that accompany the primary risks that the investor will either hedge, or will ignore if they are small. It is important to watch out for secondary risks because they could become significant and offset the returns being sought even if the investor's market view is proved correct.
An investor in market index futures is betting that the index will rise. Index futures prices are largely driven by the spot value of the index, but are also affected by costs of carry. In particular, futures prices will be driven by interest rates, expected dividends, and any other factors that may cause the basis between spot and futures prices to diverge. These risks are secondary risks.
In this question, Choice 'd' represents the primary risk, and Choice 'a', Choice 'b' and Choice 'c' are all secondary risks. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 45
Which of the following statements are true:
I. Credit VaR often assumes a one year time horizon, as opposed to a shorter time horizon for market risk as credit activities generally span a longer time period.
II. Credit losses in the banking book should be assessed on the basis of mark-to-market mode as opposed to the default-only mode.
III. The confidence level used in the calculation of credit capital is high when the objective is to maintain a high credit rating for the institution.
IV. Credit capital calculations for securities with liquid markets and held for proprietary positions should be based on marking positions to market.

• A. II and III
• B. I and III
• C. I and II
• D. I, III and IV

Answer: D

Explanation:
Statement I is correct as credit VaR calculations often use a one year time horizon. This is primarily because the cycle in respect of credit related activities, such as loan loss reviews, accounting cycles for borrowers etc last a year.
Statement II is false. There are two ways in which loss assessments in respect of credit risk can be made:
default mode, where losses are considered only in respect of default, and no losses are recognized in respect of the deterioration of the creditworthiness of the borrower (which is often expressed through a credit rating transition matrix); and the mark-to-market mode, where losses due to both defaults and credit quality are considered. The default mode is used for the loan book where the institution has lent moneys and generally intends to hold the loan on its books till maturity. The mark to market mode is used for traded securities which are not held to maturity, or are held only for trading.
Statement III is correct. The confidence interval, or the quintile of losses used for maintaining credit ratings tends to be very high as the possibility of the institution's default needs to be remote.
Statement IV is correct too, for the reasons explained earlier.

NEW QUESTION # 46
Which of the following is true for the actuarial approach to credit risk modeling (CreditRisk+):

• A. The approach is based upon historical rating transition matrices
• B. The number of defaults is modeled using a binomial distribution where the number of defaults are considered discrete events
• C. The approach considers only default risk, and ignores the risk to portfolio value from credit downgrades
• D. Default correlations between obligors are accounted for using a multivariate normal model

Answer: C

Explanation:
The actuarial model considers defaults to follow a Poisson distribution with a given mean per period, and these are binary in nature, ie a default happens or it does not happen. The model does not consider the loss of value from credit downgrades, and focuses only on defaults. The model also does not consider default correlations between obligors. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.
The other choices are not true statements that would apply to the actuarial approach.

NEW QUESTION # 47
Under the KMV Moody's approach to credit risk measurement, which of the following expressions describes the expected 'default point' value of assets at which the firm may be expected to default?

• A. 2* Short term debt + Long term debt
• B. Short term debt + 0.5* Long term debt
• C. Short term debt + Long term debt
• D. Long term debt + 0.5* Short term debt

Answer: B

Explanation:
A situation where a firm has more liabilities than assets does not necessarily imply default, so long as the firm is able to pay its obligations when they come due. Therefore, short term debts have a greater bearing on a firm's default than longer term debt. However, this is not to say that merely having enough to pay off the short term debts (ie debts due within one year) is enough to avoid default. Over time, the long term debt will also be turning to short term debt, and it may not be possible for the firm to roll over its liabilities without lenders considering the long term debt. The KMV approach considers the entire short term debt and half of the long term debt as the critical value of assets below which default will be triggered. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 48
Which of the following statements is true in respect of a non financial manufacturing firm?
I. Market risk is not relevant to the manufacturing firm as it does not take proprietary positions II. The firm faces market risks as an externality which it must bear and has no control over III. Market risks can make a comparative assessment of profitability over time difficult IV. Market risks for a manufacturing firm are not directionally biased and do not increase the overall risk of the firm as they net to zero over a long term time horizon

• A. III and IV
• B. IV only
• C. III only
• D. I and II

Answer: C

Explanation:
A non-financial firm such as a manufacturing company faces market risks similar to those faced by financial firms, except perhaps for not being exposed to risks from the equity markets. Non financial firms commonly face interest rate risks in respect of their debts, commodity price risks in respect of their inputs and products, and foreign currency risks in respect of their overseas operations. It is therefore not correct to say that the manufacturing firm does not face market riskbecause it does not take proprietary positions. While decisions on positions may not be actively taken, positions in foreign exchange (eg, through overseas debtors owing foreign currency, or liabilities in foreign currencies to overseas suppliers), commodities (through exposure to the need for raw material and inventory of finished goods) and interest rates (through debt financed, whether at fixed or floating rates) exist and create market risk much in the same way as they would for a proprietary position. Therefore statement I is incorrect.
While the firm faces market risks as an externality (as do financial firms for that matter, though often they seek such exposure to profit from their view on which way the externality will express itself), it is incorrect to say that these risks must be borne. They can be measured and hedged. Therefore statement II is incorrect.
The results of a manufacturing firm will include gains and losses arising from exposure to market risk, and will cloud the true profitability of the business. A firm with significant unhedged overseas sales may show vastly different results across time periods due to the FX gains and losses, making comparative assessment of profitability difficult. Therefore statement III is correct.
Market risks for a manufacturing firm may be directionally biased in terms of exposure, ie there may be a consistent 'long' position in a particular commodity that the firm produces, and a consistent 'short' position in the commodities consumed. In the same way, directional biases may exist in FX or interest rate exposures too.
Regardless of the bias, the existence of market risk exposures increase the volatility of the income stream and make the firm more risky, even though the long term expected returns from such exposures is zero (ie, returns may be zero but standard deviation is not). Therefore statement IV is not correct as market risks form non financial firms do increase the overall risk of the firm.

NEW QUESTION # 49
Which of the following is a cause of model risk in risk management?

• A. Misspecification of the model
• B. Programming errors
• C. Incorrect parameter estimation
• D. All of the above

Answer: D

Explanation:
Model risk is the risk that a model built for estimating a variable will produce erroneous estimates. Model risk is caused by a number of factors, including:
a) Misspecifying the model: For example, using a normal distribution when it is not justified.
b) Model misuse: For example, using a model built to estimate bond prices to estimate equity prices c) Parameter estimation errors: In particular, parameters that are subjectively determined can be subject to significant parameter estimation errors d) Programming errors: Errors in coding the model as part of computer implementation may not be detected by end users e) Data errors: Errors in data used for building the model may also introduce model risk Therefore the correct answer is d, as all the choices are a source of model risk.

NEW QUESTION # 50
Between two options positions with the same delta and based upon the same underlying, which would have a smaller VaR?

• A. the position with a higher gamma
• B. both positions would have an identical VaR
• C. the position with a higher theta
• D. the position with a lower gamma

Answer: A

Explanation:
The second order approximation of the VaR of an options position is given by [Option delta x Underlying's VaR - Option gamma/2 x (Underlying's VaR)^2]. Therefore, a higher gamma reduces VaR and a lower gamma increases VaR. Hence Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 51
A corporate bond maturing in 1 year yields 8.5% per year, while a similar treasury bond yields 4%. What is the probability of default for the corporate bond assuming the recovery rate is zero?

• A. 4.15%
• B. 4.50%
• C. 8.50%
• D. Cannot be determined from the given information

Answer: A

Explanation:
The probability of default would make the future cash flows from both the bonds identical. If p be the probability of default, the cash flows from the risky corporate bond would be
= (cash flows in the event of default x probability of default) + (cash flows without default x (1 - probability of default))
=> p*0 + (1 - p)*(1 + 8.5%) = (1 - p)*1.085.
The cash flows from the treasury bond would be 1.04. These two should be equal, ie,
1.04 = (1- p)*1.085, implying p = 4.15%.
(Note: The above is a simplification intended for the exam. In reality investors would demand a 'credit risk premium' for the corporate bond over and above the expected default loss rate. They are unlikely to be happy with just being compensated with exactly the expected default loss rate plus the risk-fre rate because the expected default loss rate itself is uncertain. They would demand some premium over and above what the default rate alone might mathematically imply above the risk free rate. In this question, this credit risk premium is ignored.)

NEW QUESTION # 52
A bank extends a loan of $1m to a home buyer to buy a house currently worth $1.5m, with the house serving as the collateral. The volatility of returns (assumed normally distributed) on house prices in that neighborhood is assessed at 10% annually. The expected probability of default of the home buyer is 5%.
What is the probability that the bank will recover less than the principal advanced on this loan; assuming the probability of the home buyer's default is independent of the value of the house?

• A. 0
• B. More than 5%
• C. Less than 1%
• D. More than 1%

Answer: C

Explanation:
The bank will not be able to recover the principal advanced on this loan if both the home buyer defaults, and the house value falls to less than $1m, ie the price moves adversely by more than $500k, which is $-500k
/$150k = -3.33#. (Note that 150k is the 1 year volatility in dollars, ie $1.5m * 10%).
The probability of both these things happening together is just the product of the two probabilities, one of which we know to be 5%. The other is also certainly a small number, and intuitively it is clear that the probability of both the things happening together will be less than 1%.
For a more precise answer, we can calculate the probability of the house price falling by 3.33 standard deviations by calculating the area under the standard normal curve to the left of -3.33#. This indeed is a very small number (actually equal to NORMSINV(-3.33)=0.00043), which when multiplied by the probability of default of the home buyer at 5% is certainly going to be less than 1%. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 53
Which of the following are valid criticisms of value at risk:
I. There are many risks that a VaR framework cannot model
II. VaR does not consider liquidity risk
III. VaR does not account for historical market movements
IV. VaR does not consider the risk of contagion

• A. I and III
• B. All of the above
• C. I, II and IV
• D. II and IV

Answer: C

Explanation:
Risks such as abrupt changes to a firm's business model caused by legislation, or the introduction of capital controls in foreign countries where a firm in invested, geo-political risks etc are not modelable in the traditional sense. These risks cannot be modeled using VaR. Therefore statement I is correct.
VaR indeed does not consider liquidity risk, it is only concerned with the standard deviation of portfolio returns. Statement II is a valid criticism.
Statement III is not correct, as VaR can consider historical price movements.
Statement IV is correct, as VaR does not consider systemic risk or the risk of contagion.

NEW QUESTION # 54
The standard error of a Monte Carlo simulation is:

• A. Proportional to the inverse of the square root of the sample size
• B. The same as that for a lognormal distribution
• C. Zero
• D. None of the above

Answer: A

Explanation:
When we do a Monte Carlo simulation, the statistic we obtain (eg, the expected price) is an estimate of the real variable. The difference between the real value (which would be what we would get if we had access to the entire population) and that estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation is measured by the 'standard error', which is the standard deviation of the difference between the 'real' value and the simulated value (ie, the 'error').
As we increase the number of draws in a Monte Carlo simulation, the closer our estimate will be to the true value of the variable we are trying to estimate. But increasing the sample size does not reduce the error in a linear way, ie doubling the sample size does not halve the error, but reduces it by the inverse of the square root of the sample size. So if we have a sample size of 1000, going up to a sample size of 100,000 will reduce the standard error by a factor of 10 (and not 100), ie, SQRT(1/100) = 1/10. In other words, standard error is proportional to 1/#N, where N is the sample size.
Therefore Choice 'c' is correct and the others are incorrect.

NEW QUESTION # 55
Which of the following statements are true:
I. It is usual to set a very high confidence level when estimating VaR for capital requirements.
II. For model validation, very high VaR confidence levels are used to minimize excess losses.
III. For limit setting for managing day to day positions, it is usual to set VaR confidence levels that are neither too low to be exceeded too often, nor too high as to be never exceeded.
IV. The Basel accord requirements for market risk capital require the use of a time horizon of 1 year.

• A. II and III
• B. III and IV
• C. I and III
• D. I and IV

Answer: C

Explanation:
This questions deals with the appropriate levels of the holding period and confidence levels for VaR estimates. These depend upon the use the VaR estimate is intended to be put to - so when calculating VaR levels for capital requirements, or for maintaining credit ratings, very high levels of confidence are generally used. On the contrary, when setting limits or validating a model, a few excess loss situations are not only acceptable but actually desirable, and therefore lower levels of confidence are used.When it comes to the holding period, that may be mandated, as it is under Basel II as being a 10 day period. For other cases, it may be a horizon roughly corresponding to a period in which positions may be liquidated in an orderly day, which could be just one day for highly liquid markets, or a week or more for larger positions in illiquid markets.
Therefore statements I and III are true and the others are false. Therefore the only correct answer is Choice 'b'.

NEW QUESTION # 56
Random recovery rates in respect of credit risk can be modeled using:

• A. the binomial distribution
• B. the beta distribution
• C. the normal distribution
• D. the omega distribution

Answer: B

Explanation:
The beta distribution is commonly used to model recovery rates. It is a distribution for variables whose values lie between 0 & 1, and the parameters of the distribution can be estimated using the mean and standard deviation of the data. Therefore Choice 'a' is correct and the others are wrong.
Refer to the tutorial on distributions for an Excel model of the beta distribution.

NEW QUESTION # 57
A bank evaluates the impact of large and severe changes in certain risk factors on its risk using a quantitative valuation model. Which of the following best describes this exercise?

• A. Stress testing
• B. Simulation
• C. Scenario analysis
• D. Sensitivity analysis

Answer: C

Explanation:
It is important to note the difference between sensitivity analysis and stress testing. Sensitivity analysis applies to measuring the effect of changes on the outputs of a model by varying the inputs - generally one input at a time.
In scenario analysis, a number of variables may be changed at the same time to see the impact on the dependent variable. For example, a bank may measure the changes in the value of its mortgage portfolio by varying its assumptions on prepayment expectations, interest rates and other factors, using its modeling software or application. The changes in the inputs may or may not relate to integrated real world situations that may arise. Sensitivity analysis is purely a quantitative exercise, much like calculating the delta of a portfolio.
A stress test may include shocks or large changes to input parameters but it does so as part of a larger stress testing programme that generally considers the interaction of risk factors, past scenarios etc. At its simplest, a stress test may be no different from a sensitivity analysis exercise, but that is generally not what is considered a stress test at large financial institutions.
A stress test may consider multiple scenarios, for example one scenario may include the events witnessed during the Asian crisis, another may include the events of the recent credit crisis. Simulation generally refers to a Monte Carlo or historical simulation, and is often a more limited exercise.
The exercise described in the question is the closest to a scenario analysis, therefore Choice 'c' is thecorrect answer.
It is important to note that all of the choices referred to in this question are related to each other, and the boundaries between them tend to be fuzzy. At what point does a complex sensitivity analysis start resembling a scenario, or a stress test can always be debatable, but such a debate would be more about the symantics than be of any practical use.

NEW QUESTION # 58
Which of the following statements are true in relation to the current state of the financial network?
I. Interconnectivity between countries has reduced while that between institutions in the same country has increased significantly II. The degrees of separation between institutions has gone up III. The average path length connecting any two given institutions has shrunk IV. Knife-edge dynamics imply that systemic risk arises from the financial system flipping from risk sharing to risk spreading

• A. II and III
• B. III and IV
• C. I and II
• D. I and IV

Answer: B

Explanation:
Over the past decade or so, systemic risk has been increased by vastly increasing network complexities resulting from greater interconnectivity between institutions as well as countries. Therefore statement I is incorrect.
Statement II is incorrect and statement III is correct because the average path length between institutions, or their degree of separation where they are not directly dealing with each other but through other counterparties to which they are exposed (analogous to 6 degrees of separation, or the 'small world' property), has shrunk and not increased.
Statement IV correctly describes knife edge dynamics, which is another way of waying that the financial network displays a tipping point property.

NEW QUESTION # 59
Which of the following would not be a part of the principal component structure of the term structure of futures prices?

• A. Trend component
• B. Tilt component
• C. Parallel component
• D. Curvature component

Answer: C

Explanation:
The trend component refers to parallel shifts in the term structure, the tilt refers to changes in the shape of the term structure at the long and short ends, and the curvature refers to movements in the medium term part. The phrase 'parallel component' has no meaning and is not a part of the principal components in analyzing term structures.
Changes in the term structure can also be analyzed as "level, slope and curvature", so you should be aware of this terminology as well to refer to the principal components of a term structure analysis.

NEW QUESTION # 60
Which of the following statements is true in relation to collateral management?
I. A collateral management system need not consider the failure by counterparties to returncollateral when due II. The extent to which counterparties may have rehypothecated collateral is not a consideration for a collateral management system III. Cash is an acceptable substitute for any type of collateral required to be posted IV. Haircuts do not apply to treasury issued instruments posted as collateral

• A. II and III
• B. None of the statements is true
• C. I, II, III and IV
• D. I, II and III

Answer: B

Explanation:
Strong management of collateral, both receivable and payable, is emerging as an area requiring significant investment by financial institutions and asset managers in IT infrastructures and business processes. A bank needs to make collateral calls daily, based upon the P&L of the previous day, and likewise receives collateral calls from its counterparties. Just like cash, a bank needs to make sure that it does not run out of collateral to post when a call is received. Interestingly, based upon the agreements between banks and their mutual understanding, only certain types of instruments often qualify as valid collateral - and in such cases even cash is not acceptable if the right type of bond or other agreed security is not available to post. The operational challenges of managing collateral increase manifold due to 'rehypothecation', ie when collateral received from one counterparty gets posted out as collateral where it is due. In such cases, the bank should have the mechanisms to receive the right assets back in a timely way in case rehypothecated assets are to be returned.
The systems should be able to deal with delays, failures without impacting the ability of the bank to post collateral as needed. All of this requires major investments in IT and processes.
Statement I is not true as a bank is bound to post collateral to third parties when needed regardless of the failure of its counterparties to post collateral to it when owed. In the markets, failures by counterparties can and do happen, and a collateral management system needs to account for and keep a buffer for the fact that some collateral when due will not be received.
Statement II is not true as rehypothecation by counterparties of collateral posted increases the chances of the collateral not being received in time. The system should consider the need for liquidity to generate assets that can be posted as collateral when others have failed to return the collateral in a timely way.
Statement III is not correct as cash may not be acceptable to counterparties as collateral. From a practical point of view, they may not have the infrastructure to receive and account for cash as collateral. A Swiss bank, for example, may have an 'account' to receive US t-bills as collateral but may not even have a US dollar account to receive cash. Even if it did, the volumes of transactions going back and forth may make tracking and reconciliations impossible. Thus a bank should always make sure that it has the right type of collateral available to post.
Statement IV is incorrect as well, as treasury issued instruments are also subject to haircuts. Their value also fluctuates in response to changes in yields, and therefore they are subject to haircuts as well.
Thus none of the statements are correct and Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

NEW QUESTION # 61
Company A issues bonds with a face value of $100m, sold at $98. Bank B holds $10m in face of these bonds acquired at a price of $70. Company A then defaults, and the recovery rate is expected to be 30%. What is Bank B's loss?

• A. $2.1m
• B. $4.9m
• C. $7m
• D. $4m

Answer: D

Explanation:
The bank paid $7m for the bonds, and expected recovery is $3m (30% x $10m face). Therefore Bank B's loss is $4m ($7m - $3m). Choice 'b' is the correct answer. All other answers are incorrect.

NEW QUESTION # 62
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